Government to release Q3 GDP growth on Feb 28.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders during a given period. As a broad measure of gross domestic product, it serves as a comprehensive measure of the health of a country’s economy.
GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis, but in some cases it is also calculated on a quarterly basis.
The individual datasets included in this report are presented at actual prices and therefore adjusted for price changes, so inflation is not included.
The government is expected to release third quarter GDP data on February 28. Experts and economists estimate that India’s economy will grow by 4.6% to 5% during the period October-December 2022.
Barclays India expects India to grow by 5 .0% year-over-year in Q3 FY23 (or Q4 2022), compared to growth of 6.3% a year earlier. However, on a quarterly basis, GDP growth in the third quarter may have been faster than in the previous quarter.
“Our 5.0% growth Q4 (Q3 FY23) forecast implies CY22 growth of 6.9%, which creates modest upside risks to our FY22-23 growth forecast of 7.0%, as high-frequency indicators are looking pretty strong for Q1 2023 (Q4 FY23),” said Rahul Bajoria, MD & Head of EM Asia (ex-China) Economics, Barclays.
Meanwhile, SBI Research estimates India’s GDP growth rate at 4.6% in Q3 FY2023.
RBI estimates real GDP growth at 4.4% in Q3FY23 and NSO estimates full-year growth of 7.0% in FY23. For 2023-2024, RBI projects GDP growth of 6.4%, 7.8% in Q1; 6.2% at K2; 6.0% at K3; and 5.8% in Q4.
“In India, domestic consumption and investment stand to benefit from stronger prospects for agricultural and allied activities, strengthening business and consumer confidence, and strong credit growth. Supply responses and cost conditions are poised to improve even though inflation witnessed a rebound in January. The Union Budget 2023-24’s emphasis on capital expenditure is expected to crowd-in private investment, strengthen job creation and demand, and raise India’s potential growth,” said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India.
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