Indigo may Expect a 30% year-on-year Increase in Domestic Departures in Winter: Jefferies

According to Jefferies, Indigo has the largest year-on-year (YoY) increase in the number of domestic departures planned each week this winter among the main airlines.

IndiGo has a 63.4% domestic market share as of July 2023. IndiGo is India’s biggest airline in terms of passenger capacity and fleet size. It links 32 overseas destinations and 81 local ones. 

IndiGo boosted its market share from 56.8% in April to 63.4% in July. IndiGo’s market share in August 2023 was 63%. 

Tata Group’s aggregate market share in August 2023 was 26.8%. All airlines transported around 1% more passengers in June 2023 than in June 2022. However, this was 4.8% lower than pre-Covid levels in June 2019. 

This schedule, which is provided regularly by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), represents the maximum number of flights that airlines may fly during the time; the actual number may vary greatly. Airlines operate on a winter schedule from October 29 to March 30.

Indigo anticipates a 30 percent YoY increase in domestic departures to 13,119 in the winter schedule for 2023, up from 10,085 in the winter schedule for 2022.

In the winter schedule of 2022, Akasa Air will see a 65 percent YoY increase to 790 from a modest base of 479, while the lesser participants in the ‘Others’ category will experience a 55 percent YoY increase to 568 from a foundation of 367.

The YoY increase in departures at Air India Group is 15%.

Spicejet and GoFirst have had YoY decreases of 33% and 100%, respectively.

The analysts noted, “The collapse of schedule for GoFirst, and shrinking of SpiceJet have been covered by IndiGo and AI.”

Overall, the airline industry’s departures are forecast to rise by 8% year on year and 4% over the previous timetable.

Indigo also anticipates a 14 percent increase in departures in this timetable (winter schedule of 2023) compared to the previous one (summer schedule of 2023). This increase is comparable to Tata’s Air India Group’s 13% increase in departures in this schedule compared to the prior schedule.

On the new airports, the analysts wrote, “Of the 118 airports, Bhatinda, Jaisalmer, Ludhiana, Nanded, Shivamogga, Salem, Utkela, Hindon and Ziro are new airports proposed for operation by the scheduled airlines. Operations from Gondia (Maharashtra) airport have not been proposed in the Winter Schedule 2023.”