August 2023: Expect reasonable retail sales growth across all sectors, with PV deliveries likely to increase by 4% to 5% year over year

As compared to the same period last year, August 2023 automotive sales are predicted to climb somewhat across sectors due to increased demand.

Two-wheeler retail sales are anticipated to increase by 4-5%, whereas analysts predict that passenger vehicle (PV) retail sales will increase by 5-7% year over year. Additionally, because of the impending holiday season, freight demand is predicted to increase post-monsoon, which might result in 4-6% YoY growth for MHCV retail.

According to forecasts from brokerage company Motilal Oswal Financial Services, tractor volumes are anticipated to increase by 3 to 5 percent YoY, driven by a good reservoir level and favorable crop realization. However, according to a study, demand in the southern markets has remained subdued.

Let’s examine the anticipated vehicle sales in August by segment:

Two-Wheelers

August two-wheeler retail sales are anticipated to increase by 4-5% YoY due to consistent urban demand and a slow but steady rebound in the rural sector. According to channel checks conducted by brokerage company Motilal Oswal, urban volume increase has been between 5 and 7% YoY, while rural volume growth has been between 3 and 5% YoY. 

“iQube, which had a waiting period of one month, is now readily available post the decline in sales due to FAME subsidy reduction. To counter the competition in the 100CC segment, prices for both TVS Radeon and Hero MotoCorp’s HF Deluxe have been cut by ₹4,000-5,000. The volumes of HF Deluxe have been adversely impacted by just 10-15% due to Shine 100, while there is no major impact on Splendor. However, this is likely to come down further going forward,” the brokerage report said.

Additionally, most two-wheeler dealers have robust inventories of 35 to 40 days, with Hero MotoCorp having the longest inventory at 45 to 50 days. Dispatches are predicted to decrease by 7% and 18%, respectively, for Hero MotoCorp and Bajaj Auto while increasing by about 3% and 8%, YoY, for TVS Motor Company and Royal Enfield.

Passenger Vehicles (PV)

Retail sales of passenger vehicles are predicted to increase by 5-7% YoY, driven by the fulfillment of backlog orders and the resolution of supply chain problems. Bookings and inquiries are still constant month over month. 

“Tata Motors launched its twin-cylinder CNG technology in all its petrol-powered models (ex-Nexon) and initial feedback from dealers suggests 20% incremental sales from these variants. Maruti Suzuki India dealers do not expect a dent in demand for their CNG-powered vehicles in the short term and expect this move by Tata Motors to expand the CNG market as a whole,” said the report.

Inventory days have risen somewhat across regions, remaining on the upper side in South India at 40–45 days while remaining lower in the western and central areas at 35–40 days apiece. 

Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra (including pickups), and Tata Motors dispatches are anticipated to increase 11%, 12%, and 3% YoY, respectively.

Commercial Vehicles (CV) MHCV retail is forecast to increase by 4-6% YoY this month as freight demand is expected to increase following the monsoon because of the impending holiday season. The predicted 3-5% YoY reduction in LCV volumes. The research claims that because return freight demand is seasonal, it has been relatively low this month.

Festivals coming up and a promising macroeconomic outlook could support solid growth starting in mid-September, according to the brokerage. 

It anticipates that Tata Motors CV dispatches would increase by 7% YoY, Ashok Leyland by 10%, and VECV by 17%.

Tractors

The strong reservoir level and favorable crop realizations are expected to drive a 3-5% YoY increase in tractor retail sales. However, in the southern areas, demand has remained subdued. 

As we get closer to the holiday season, inventory levels have begun to rise and are presently at 6-7 weeks as opposed to 5-6 weeks in July 2023. 

Dispatch growth for M&M is predicted to be 7%, while Escort dispatch growth is predicted to be 1.5% YoY. 

Dispatch growth for M&M is predicted to be 7%, while Escort dispatch growth is predicted to be 1.5% YoY. 

Strong demand and a steady competitive environment, according to Motilal Oswal, are the reasons it favors CVs over other market categories. 

“We prefer companies with higher visibility in terms of demand recovery, a strong competitive positioning, encouraging margin drivers, and a strong balance sheet,” Motilal Oswal said.

Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland are its top OEM picks.